Romania needs a new loan. What banks think the exchange rate will be

Redactor:
Simona Simionescu
Romania needs a new loan. What banks think the exchange rate will be
Romania needs a new loan from international institutions, not necessarily for the money but as a guarantee that the economy is on track, which would in turn bring in foreign investors.

Romania needs a new loan from international institutions, notnecessarily for the money but as a guarantee that the economy is ontrack, which would in turn bring in foreign investors.

„It’s not really money we need, but guidance, this «rubberstamp» of an economy that is on track to fix itself with themeasures international institutions might propose”, stated LucianAnghel, Chief Economist of the Romanian Commercial Bank, whilepresenting the „Romania – Moment of Truth” report.

Such an understanding would be a continuation of the currentstand-by agreement with the Fund and with the European Commissionand is all the more necessary seeing as 2012 will be an electionyear. Anghel says that during such a period the Government would beless determined to implement all public sector reforms.

What the analysts think about the economy’swoes

The exchange rate will remain in the 4.1-4.3 Romanian Lei/Eurointerval, under the condition that the agreement with the Fund andthe European Commission be finalized, believes Lucian Anghel. TheRomanian Leu had five days of depreciation in June, after theConstitutional Court rejected the Government’s proposal to cutpensions 15%, the exchange rate reaching a historic minimum of4.4023 Romanian Lei/Euro on June 29th.

After Parliament green-lighted the 25% salary cut for publicsector employees and the rise in VAT as of July 1st, the RomanianLeu started coming back.

If the Government will again tinker with the taxes and duties,the economy could continue its negative growth in 2011. Anghelwarns that a new rise in taxes and duties as of next year wouldsignificantly reduce the chances of the economy having positivegrowth.

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